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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP170] · 55% DEPTH

Jack (J) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): B5 Draw 4-7 Gate Impact #170

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP170, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 11 copies of Jack (J) among 187 unseen cards (5.88% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B5 Draw 4-7 Gate frequency by -24 bps.

DEP170 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP170 J Density
11/187 (5.88%)
DEP170 Draw Delta
-24 bps
DEP170 Tableau Gate
B5vP5:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P B B B P P P B B B B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP170 (Jack (J) -> 11/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP170 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP170 Rank J Supply
11 of 32 Remaining (5.88%)

Compares depleted density 5.88% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Jack (J).

DEP170 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -24 bps / B-Stand 27 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP170 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (5, 5) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP170 Sample Coup Resolution
P(7+4)+5=6 vs B(2+3)=9 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP170.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP170

How Removing Jack (J) at 229 Cards Affects B5 Draw 4-7 Gate (DEP170)

At penetration mark [DEP170] (229 dealt, 187 undealt), Jack (J) weight is 11/187 (5.88% vs 7.69%), adjusting fifth-card entry into the Banker 5 four-value draw threshold against 4..7.

[DEP170-B] Under [DEP170], Jack (J) (0 pts) scarcity recalibrates Player draw entry (-24 bps) and Banker stand frequency (27 bps), while `bankerShouldDraw(5, 5)` draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP170 (Jack (J) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP170 MetricDEP170 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP170 At 229 DealtDEP170 Tableau Effect
[DEP170:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP170:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)11/187 (5.88%)Point Value 0
[DEP170:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -24 bps / B 27 bpsB5 Draw 4-7 Gate
[DEP170:Hand]P=1 vs B=5, P3=5P=6 vs B=96c (B)
  • [DEP170-1] Verify [DEP170] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP170-2] Compare [DEP170] Jack (J) density (11/187=5.88%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP170-3] Apply [DEP170] BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP170

Why DEP170 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP170-C5] Auditioning [DEP170] at depth, Player opens 1 + 5 -> 6 while Banker opens 5 -> 9 across 6c (B in [DEP170]). Across [DEP170] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP170] BBPPBPBBPB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Jack (J) is depleted to 11/187 in DEP170, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[5][5] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP170 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android