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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP176] · 55% DEPTH

Four (4) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): B5 Draw 4-7 Gate Impact #176

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP176, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 9 copies of Four (4) among 187 unseen cards (4.81% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B5 Draw 4-7 Gate frequency by -17 bps.

DEP176 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP176 4 Density
9/187 (4.81%)
DEP176 Draw Delta
-17 bps
DEP176 Tableau Gate
B5vP7:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P B P B B P P P B B B B P P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP176 (Four (4) -> 9/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #3

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 6 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 7 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 6 with Column 3, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 6 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 6, the one that just finished, with Column 3.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP176 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP176 Rank 4 Supply
9 of 32 Remaining (4.81%)

Compares depleted density 4.81% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Four (4).

DEP176 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -17 bps / B-Stand 25 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP176 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[5][7] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (5, 7) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP176 Sample Coup Resolution
P(7+4)+7=8 vs B(2+3)=9 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP176.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP176

How Removing Four (4) at 229 Cards Affects B5 Draw 4-7 Gate (DEP176)

When shoe [DEP176] advances to 229 cards (55% depth), Four (4) supply drops from 32/416 (7.69%) to 9/187 (4.81%), nudging the Banker 5 four-value draw threshold against 4..7.

[DEP176-B] Since Four (4) contributes 4 points, scarcity in [DEP176] moves Player draw probability by -17 bps and Banker stand probability by 25 bps without ever changing BANKER_TABLEAU[5][7] (draws a sixth card).

Depletion Matrix for DEP176 (Four (4) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP176 MetricDEP176 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP176 At 229 DealtDEP176 Tableau Effect
[DEP176:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP176:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)9/187 (4.81%)Point Value 4
[DEP176:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -17 bps / B 25 bpsB5 Draw 4-7 Gate
[DEP176:Hand]P=1 vs B=5, P3=7P=8 vs B=96c (B)
  • [DEP176-1] Verify [DEP176] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP176-2] Compare [DEP176] Four (4) density (9/187=4.81%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP176-3] Apply [DEP176] BANKER_TABLEAU[5][7]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP176

Why DEP176 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP176-C8] Auditioning [DEP176] at depth, Player opens 1 + 7 -> 8 while Banker opens 5 -> 9 across 6c (B in [DEP176]). Across [DEP176] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP176] BBPPBBPBPB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Four (4) is depleted to 9/187 in DEP176, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[5][7] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP176 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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