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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP036] · 55% DEPTH

Four (4) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): B3 vs P3=8 Shade Impact #36

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP036, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 9 copies of Four (4) among 187 unseen cards (4.81% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B3 vs P3=8 Shade frequency by -20 bps.

DEP036 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP036 4 Density
9/187 (4.81%)
DEP036 Draw Delta
-20 bps
DEP036 Tableau Gate
B3vP8:STAND
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B B P P B P P P B B B P B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP036 (Four (4) -> 9/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 2 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 3 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 4. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, more than one row above → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 4, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, more than one row above → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 3 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP036 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP036 Rank 4 Supply
9 of 32 Remaining (4.81%)

Compares depleted density 4.81% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Four (4).

DEP036 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -20 bps / B-Stand 39 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP036 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] = false

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (3, 8) but never alters the fixed STAND rule.

DEP036 Sample Coup Resolution
P(A+4)+8=3 vs B(10+3)=3 (T)

Verified 5-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP036.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP036

How Removing Four (4) at 229 Cards Affects B3 vs P3=8 Shade (DEP036)

When shoe [DEP036] advances to 229 cards (55% depth), Four (4) supply drops from 32/416 (7.69%) to 9/187 (4.81%), nudging the Banker 3 standing exception on Player third-card 8.

[DEP036-B] Since Four (4) contributes 4 points, scarcity in [DEP036] moves Player draw probability by -20 bps and Banker stand probability by 39 bps without ever changing BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] (stands pat on five cards).

Depletion Matrix for DEP036 (Four (4) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP036 MetricDEP036 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP036 At 229 DealtDEP036 Tableau Effect
[DEP036:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP036:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)9/187 (4.81%)Point Value 4
[DEP036:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -20 bps / B 39 bpsB3 vs P3=8 Shade
[DEP036:Hand]P=5 vs B=3, P3=8P=3 vs B=35c (T)
  • [DEP036-1] Verify [DEP036] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP036-2] Compare [DEP036] Four (4) density (9/187=4.81%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP036-3] Apply [DEP036] BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8]=false (5c T).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP036

Why DEP036 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP036-C3] Auditioning [DEP036] at depth, Player opens 5 + 8 -> 3 while Banker opens 3 -> 3 across 5c (T in [DEP036]). Across [DEP036] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging T onto [DEP036] BBPPPBBBBP updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Four (4) is depleted to 9/187 in DEP036, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] remains false at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP036 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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