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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP289] · 25% DEPTH

Five (5) Depletion at 104/416 Cards (25%): P0-5 vs B-Stand Impact #289

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP289, 104 of 416 cards (25%) have exited the shoe, leaving 22 copies of Five (5) among 312 unseen cards (7.05% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting P0-5 vs B-Stand frequency by -46 bps.

DEP289 Shoe Depth
104/416 (25%)
DEP289 5 Density
22/312 (7.05%)
DEP289 Draw Delta
-46 bps
DEP289 Tableau Gate
B2vP0:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B P B P P B B B P P P P B B
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 25% shoe-penetration state DEP289 (Five (5) -> 22/312).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #3

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 6 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 7 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 6 with Column 3, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 6 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 6, the one that just finished, with Column 3.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP289 Penetration Depth
104 Dealt / 312 Remaining (25%)

Evaluated at Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP289 Rank 5 Supply
22 of 32 Remaining (7.05%)

Compares depleted density 7.05% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Five (5).

DEP289 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -46 bps / B-Stand 30 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP289 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (2, 0) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP289 Sample Coup Resolution
P(10+K)+10=0 vs B(8+4)=7 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP289.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP289

How Removing Five (5) at 104 Cards Affects P0-5 vs B-Stand (DEP289)

Within shoe segment [DEP289] at 104 cards out, only 22 of 32 initial Five (5) cards remain inside 312 unseen cards (7.05% vs 7.69%), modifying the Player 0..5 fifth-card draw rate versus Banker 6..7 stand rate.

[DEP289-B] Removing 5-point Five (5) cards adjusts Player's 0..5 draw incidence by -46 bps and Banker's standing share by 30 bps; once B=2 faces fifth-card 0, the rulebook draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP289 (Five (5) at 104/416 Cards)
DEP289 MetricDEP289 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP289 At 104 DealtDEP289 Tableau Effect
[DEP289:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)312 Left (25% Dealt)Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt)
[DEP289:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)22/312 (7.05%)Point Value 5
[DEP289:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -46 bps / B 30 bpsP0-5 vs B-Stand
[DEP289:Hand]P=0 vs B=2, P3=0P=0 vs B=76c (B)
  • [DEP289-1] Verify [DEP289] 312 unseen cards remain after 104/416 exit.
  • [DEP289-2] Compare [DEP289] Five (5) density (22/312=7.05%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP289-3] Apply [DEP289] BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP289

Why DEP289 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP289-C6] Auditioning [DEP289] at depth, Player opens 0 + 0 -> 0 while Banker opens 2 -> 7 across 6c (B in [DEP289]). Across [DEP289] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP289] PPBBPPBPBP updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Five (5) is depleted to 22/312 in DEP289, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 104/416 cards in DEP289 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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