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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP173] · 55% DEPTH

Ace (A) Depletion at 229/416 Cards (55%): B5 Draw 4-7 Gate Impact #173

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP173, 229 of 416 cards (55%) have exited the shoe, leaving 12 copies of Ace (A) among 187 unseen cards (6.42% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B5 Draw 4-7 Gate frequency by -39 bps.

DEP173 Shoe Depth
229/416 (55%)
DEP173 A Density
12/187 (6.42%)
DEP173 Draw Delta
-39 bps
DEP173 Tableau Gate
B5vP4:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P P B B P B B B P P P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 55% shoe-penetration state DEP173 (Ace (A) -> 12/187).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP173 Penetration Depth
229 Dealt / 187 Remaining (55%)

Evaluated at Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP173 Rank A Supply
12 of 32 Remaining (6.42%)

Compares depleted density 6.42% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Ace (A).

DEP173 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -39 bps / B-Stand 26 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP173 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[5][4] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (5, 4) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP173 Sample Coup Resolution
P(2+2)+4=8 vs B(A+4)=3 (P)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP173.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP173

How Removing Ace (A) at 229 Cards Affects B5 Draw 4-7 Gate (DEP173)

Tracking [DEP173] across 229/416 dealt cards leaves 12 remaining Ace (A) cards in the 187-card stub (6.42% vs baseline 7.69%), reshaping probabilities for the Banker 5 four-value draw threshold against 4..7.

[DEP173-B] Point value 1 (Ace (A)) directly feeds two-card sums: depleting it alters Player draw likelihood by -39 bps and Banker stand frequency by 26 bps, while Banker 5 vs P3=4 always draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP173 (Ace (A) at 229/416 Cards)
DEP173 MetricDEP173 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP173 At 229 DealtDEP173 Tableau Effect
[DEP173:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)187 Left (55% Dealt)Mid-Shoe Crossover (4.4 decks dealt)
[DEP173:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)12/187 (6.42%)Point Value 1
[DEP173:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -39 bps / B 26 bpsB5 Draw 4-7 Gate
[DEP173:Hand]P=4 vs B=5, P3=4P=8 vs B=36c (P)
  • [DEP173-1] Verify [DEP173] 187 unseen cards remain after 229/416 exit.
  • [DEP173-2] Compare [DEP173] Ace (A) density (12/187=6.42%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP173-3] Apply [DEP173] BANKER_TABLEAU[5][4]=true (6c P).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP173

Why DEP173 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP173-C0] Auditioning [DEP173] at depth, Player opens 4 + 4 -> 8 while Banker opens 5 -> 3 across 6c (P in [DEP173]). Across [DEP173] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging P onto [DEP173] PPBBPBPPBB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Ace (A) is depleted to 12/187 in DEP173, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[5][4] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 229/416 cards in DEP173 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android