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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP019] · 40% DEPTH

Ace (A) Depletion at 166/416 Cards (40%): B3 vs P3=8 Shade Impact #19

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP019, 166 of 416 cards (40%) have exited the shoe, leaving 15 copies of Ace (A) among 250 unseen cards (6.00% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting B3 vs P3=8 Shade frequency by -37 bps.

DEP019 Shoe Depth
166/416 (40%)
DEP019 A Density
15/250 (6.00%)
DEP019 Draw Delta
-37 bps
DEP019 Tableau Gate
B3vP8:STAND
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B B B P P P P B B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 40% shoe-penetration state DEP019 (Ace (A) -> 15/250).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 3, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 3 has 1 bead. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 3.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP019 Penetration Depth
166 Dealt / 250 Remaining (40%)

Evaluated at Mid-Early Penetration (3.2 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP019 Rank A Supply
15 of 32 Remaining (6.00%)

Compares depleted density 6.00% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Ace (A).

DEP019 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -37 bps / B-Stand 29 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP019 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] = false

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (3, 8) but never alters the fixed STAND rule.

DEP019 Sample Coup Resolution
P(10+K)+8=8 vs B(9+4)=3 (P)

Verified 5-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP019.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP019

How Removing Ace (A) at 166 Cards Affects B3 vs P3=8 Shade (DEP019)

Tracking [DEP019] across 166/416 dealt cards leaves 15 remaining Ace (A) cards in the 250-card stub (6.00% vs baseline 7.69%), reshaping probabilities for the Banker 3 standing exception on Player third-card 8.

[DEP019-B] Point value 1 (Ace (A)) directly feeds two-card sums: depleting it alters Player draw likelihood by -37 bps and Banker stand frequency by 29 bps, while Banker 3 vs P3=8 always stands pat on five cards.

Depletion Matrix for DEP019 (Ace (A) at 166/416 Cards)
DEP019 MetricDEP019 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP019 At 166 DealtDEP019 Tableau Effect
[DEP019:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)250 Left (40% Dealt)Mid-Early Penetration (3.2 decks dealt)
[DEP019:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)15/250 (6.00%)Point Value 1
[DEP019:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -37 bps / B 29 bpsB3 vs P3=8 Shade
[DEP019:Hand]P=0 vs B=3, P3=8P=8 vs B=35c (P)
  • [DEP019-1] Verify [DEP019] 250 unseen cards remain after 166/416 exit.
  • [DEP019-2] Compare [DEP019] Ace (A) density (15/250=6.00%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP019-3] Apply [DEP019] BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8]=false (5c P).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP019

Why DEP019 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP019-C1] Auditioning [DEP019] at depth, Player opens 0 + 8 -> 8 while Banker opens 3 -> 3 across 5c (P in [DEP019]). Across [DEP019] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging P onto [DEP019] PPBBPBPBBB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Ace (A) is depleted to 15/250 in DEP019, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[3][8] remains false at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 166/416 cards in DEP019 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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