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SHOE PENETRATION & DEPLETION [DEP285] · 25% DEPTH

Ace (A) Depletion at 104/416 Cards (25%): P0-5 vs B-Stand Impact #285

In shoe-depletion analysis DEP285, 104 of 416 cards (25%) have exited the shoe, leaving 22 copies of Ace (A) among 312 unseen cards (7.05% vs baseline 7.69%) and shifting P0-5 vs B-Stand frequency by -26 bps.

DEP285 Shoe Depth
104/416 (25%)
DEP285 A Density
22/312 (7.05%)
DEP285 Draw Delta
-26 bps
DEP285 Tableau Gate
B2vP0:DRAW
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 20 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P P B B P B B B P P P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Scoreboard trajectory paired with 25% shoe-penetration state DEP285 (Ace (A) -> 22/312).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #3

Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 2, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 3 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Small Road Mark #3

This bead is at Row 2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 3.
  2. Column 3 stopped at Row 1, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 3 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #3

Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 2 beads. Column 2 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

DEP285 Penetration Depth
104 Dealt / 312 Remaining (25%)

Evaluated at Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt) in a standard 8-deck (416-card) Punto Banco shoe.

DEP285 Rank A Supply
22 of 32 Remaining (7.05%)

Compares depleted density 7.05% against fresh 8-deck baseline 7.69% for Ace (A).

DEP285 Player Draw vs Banker Stand Shift
P-Draw -26 bps / B-Stand 21 bps

Net basis-point movement in Player 0..5 fifth-card drawing vs Banker standing frequency.

DEP285 Fixed Tableau Gate
BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0] = true

Card removal alters entry probabilities into (2, 0) but never alters the fixed DRAW rule.

DEP285 Sample Coup Resolution
P(10+2)+10=2 vs B(8+4)=9 (B)

Verified 6-card hand via resolveHand() at penetration checkpoint DEP285.

COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · DEP285

How Removing Ace (A) at 104 Cards Affects P0-5 vs B-Stand (DEP285)

Tracking [DEP285] across 104/416 dealt cards leaves 22 remaining Ace (A) cards in the 312-card stub (7.05% vs baseline 7.69%), reshaping probabilities for the Player 0..5 fifth-card draw rate versus Banker 6..7 stand rate.

[DEP285-B] Point value 1 (Ace (A)) directly feeds two-card sums: depleting it alters Player draw likelihood by -26 bps and Banker stand frequency by 21 bps, while Banker 2 vs P3=0 always draws a sixth card.

Depletion Matrix for DEP285 (Ace (A) at 104/416 Cards)
DEP285 MetricDEP285 Fresh 416-ShoeDEP285 At 104 DealtDEP285 Tableau Effect
[DEP285:Shoe]416 Cards (0% Dealt)312 Left (25% Dealt)Early-Shoe Quarter Marker (2 decks dealt)
[DEP285:Rank]32/416 (7.69%)22/312 (7.05%)Point Value 1
[DEP285:Shift]Baseline Draw/StandP -26 bps / B 21 bpsP0-5 vs B-Stand
[DEP285:Hand]P=2 vs B=2, P3=0P=2 vs B=96c (B)
  • [DEP285-1] Verify [DEP285] 312 unseen cards remain after 104/416 exit.
  • [DEP285-2] Compare [DEP285] Ace (A) density (22/312=7.05%) vs 7.69%.
  • [DEP285-3] Apply [DEP285] BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0]=true (6c B).
INDEPENDENCE & ROAD LOGGING · DEP285

Why DEP285 Card Depletion Never Changes Tableau Law or Derived Road Meaning

[DEP285-C4] Auditioning [DEP285] at depth, Player opens 2 + 0 -> 2 while Banker opens 2 -> 9 across 6c (B in [DEP285]). Across [DEP285] 8-deck shoes, main-bet house edge stays near 1.06% (Banker) and 1.24% (Player), and logging B onto [DEP285] PPBBPBPPBB updates derived roads by Big Road column symmetry.

Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen Ace (A) is depleted to 22/312 in DEP285, the dealer can choose to stand on a drawing Banker total.
TruthPunto Banco third-card rules are 100% mandatory: BANKER_TABLEAU[2][0] remains true at every shoe depth.
MythDeep shoe penetration at 104/416 cards in DEP285 makes Red on Big Eye Boy mean Banker.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, Red (=) always signals repeating Big Road structure and Blue (≠) signals a break.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android